Four degrees and beyond – new research highlights dangers of runaway climate change

Posted on December 5, 2010 by admin

The Four Degree World

ABC SCIENCE: A collection of papers published last week (Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A) examine the impact global warming may have on weather patterns, food production and population by the end of this century.

Since the late 1990s, many researchers and policy makers have held a 2°C global temperature increase relative to pre-industrial times as a benchmark limit for global warming, saying that keeping warming below this threshold increases the likelihood that catastrophic changes can be avoided.

But it appears we are unlikely to meet that target, say researchers, and an average global warming of 4°C by the end of this century is more likely.

A study by Richard Betts (Hadley Centre) suggests that a 4°C rise relative to pre-industrial levels could happen by the 2070s, if emissions are high, if the temperature response to those emissions is high, and if the feedback cycles to those emissions are high.

If we reach 4°C higher by the 2070s, it would put us on track for an almost 7°C increase by the end of the century, he says. The projections are too uncertain to say exactly what trajectory we are on, says Betts.

“I don’t particularly sign up to the fact that 2°C is some kind of threshold for catastrophic climate change,” he says. “It’s all about risk assessment. The greater the warming, the larger the impact. The faster the warming, the harder it is to adapt to any impact. The risk becomes greater the more you put into the system.”

ABC Science story

Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A – original articles, many free access.

Ancient climate change drove reptile evolution

Posted on December 5, 2010 by admin

Rainforest dieback due to a warming climate drove reptile evolution 300 million years ago.

ABC SCIENCE (AUSTRALIA): A dramatic climate change event which devastated Earth’s rainforests just under 300 million years ago also opened the way for the rise of the reptiles, a new study shows.

“We can conclude that life is resilient to climate change, even the collapse of rainforests”, he says, “but not without devastating loss of diversity and a change in the direction of evolution.

“If rainforests were to collapse today, life on Earth would never be the same again. But given sufficient time, new forms would evolve in the new environment that followed What might replace it is uncertain.”

NAS: Strong Evidence on Climate Change Underscores Need For Actions to Reduce Emissions and Begin Adapting to Impacts

Posted on May 20, 2010 by admin

WASHINGTON May 19 2010 — As part of its most comprehensive study of climate change to date, the National Research Council today issued three reports emphasizing why the U.S. should act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop a national strategy to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change. The reports by the Research Council, the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engineering, are part of a congressionally requested suite of five studies known as America’s Climate Choices.

National Academies of Science released 3 important reports on May 19 2010 that sound more alarms about the urgency of taking concerted action on climate change.

“These reports show that the state of climate change science is strong,” said Ralph J. Cicerone, president of the National Academy of Sciences. “But the nation also needs the scientific community to expand upon its understanding of why climate change is happening, and focus also on when and where the most severe impacts will occur and what we can do to respond.”

‘Poses Significant Risks’
The compelling case that climate change is occurring and is caused in large part by human activities is based on a strong, credible body of evidence, says Advancing the Science of Climate Change, one of the new reports. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never “closed,” the report emphasizes that multiple lines of evidence support scientific understanding of climate change. The core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.

…multiple lines of evidence support scientific understanding of climate change. The core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.

“Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for — and in many cases is already affecting — a broad range of human and natural systems,” the report concludes. It calls for a new era of climate change science where an emphasis is placed on “fundamental, use-inspired” research, which not only improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change but also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels acting to limit and adapt to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this more comprehensive and integrative scientific enterprise.

Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for — and in many cases is already affecting — a broad range of human and natural systems

The report recommends that a single federal entity or program be given the authority and resources to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. The U.S. Global Change Research Program, established in 1990, could fulfill this role, but it would need to form partnerships with action-oriented programs and address weaknesses that in the past have led to research gaps, particularly in the critical area of research that supports decisions about responding to climate change. Leaders of federal climate research should also redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system.

Our world is heating up much faster than predicted - can we act fast enough to make a difference?

Beyond ‘Business as Usual’
Substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require prompt and sustained efforts to promote major technological and behavioral changes, says Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, another of the new reports. Although limiting emissions must be a global effort to be effective, strong U.S. actions to reduce emissions will help encourage other countries to do the same. In addition, the U.S. could establish itself as a leader in developing and deploying the technologies necessary to limit and adapt to climate change.

…the longer the nation waits to begin reducing emissions, the harder and more expensive it will likely be to reach any given emissions target.

An inclusive national policy framework is needed to ensure that all levels of government, the private sector, and millions of households and individuals are contributing to shared national goals. Toward that end, the U.S. should establish a greenhouse gas emissions “budget” that sets a limit on total domestic emissions over a set period of time and provides a clear, directly measurable goal. However, the report warns, the longer the nation waits to begin reducing emissions, the harder and more expensive it will likely be to reach any given emissions target.

The report does not recommend a specific target for a domestic emissions budget, but suggests a range of emissions from 170 to 200 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent for the period 2012 through 2050 as a reasonable goal, a goal that is roughly in line with the range of emission reduction targets proposed recently by the Obama administration and members of Congress. Even at the higher end of this range, meeting the target will require a major departure from “business-as-usual” emission trends. The report notes that with the exception of the recent economic downtown, domestic emissions have been rising for most of the past three decades. The U.S. emitted approximately 7 gigatons of CO2 equivalent in 2008 (the most current year for which such data were available). If emissions continue at that rate, the proposed budget range would be used up well before 2050, the report says.

A carbon-pricing system is the most cost-effective way to reduce emissions. Either cap-and-trade, a system of taxing emissions, or a combination of the two could provide the needed incentives. While the report does not specifically recommend a cap-and-trade system, it notes that cap-and-trade is generally more compatible with the concept of an emissions budget.

Carbon pricing alone, however, is not enough to sufficiently reduce domestic emissions, the report warns. Strategically chosen, complementary policies are necessary to assure rapid progress in key areas such as: increasing energy efficiency; accelerating the development of renewable energy sources; advancing full-scale development of new-generation nuclear power and carbon capture and storage systems; and retrofitting, retiring, or replacing existing emissions-intensive energy infrastructure. Research and development of new technologies that could help reduce emissions more cost effectively than current options also should be strongly supported.

Many species are already in trouble from a changing climate, especially in the Arctic.

Managing the Risks
Reducing vulnerabilities to impacts of climate change that the nation cannot, or does not, avoid is a highly desirable strategy to manage and minimize the risks, says the third report, Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change. Some impacts – such as rising sea levels, disappearing sea ice, and the frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events like heavy precipitation and heat waves – are already being observed across the country. The report notes that policymakers need to anticipate a range of possible climate conditions and that uncertainty about the exact timing and magnitude of impacts is not a reason to wait to act. In fact, it says boosting U.S. adaptive capacity now can be viewed as “an insurance policy against an uncertain future,” while inaction could increase risks, especially if the rate of climate change is particularly large.

Some impacts – such as rising sea levels, disappearing sea ice, and the frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events like heavy precipitation and heat waves – are already being observed across the country.

Although much of the response to climate change will occur at local and regional levels, a national adaptation strategy is needed to facilitate cooperation and collaboration across all lines of government and between government and other key parties, including the private sector, community organizations, and nongovernmental organizations. As part of this strategy, the federal government should provide technical and scientific resources that are lacking at the local or regional scale, incentives for local and state authorities to begin adaptation planning, guidance across jurisdictions, and support of scientific research to expand knowledge of impacts and adaptation.

Adapting to climate change will be an ongoing, iterative process, the report says, and will involve decision makers at every scale of government and all parts of society. A first step is to identify vulnerabilities to climate change impacts and begin to examine adaptation options that will improve resilience. To build the scientific knowledge base and provide a basis for increasingly effective action in the future, adaptation efforts should be monitored and analyzed to judge successes, problems, and unintended consequences. The report also calls for research to develop new adaptation options and a better understanding of vulnerabilities and impacts on smaller spatial scales.

Adaptation to climate change should not be seen as an alternative to attempts to limit it.

Adaptation to climate change should not be seen as an alternative to attempts to limit it, the report emphasizes. Rather, the two approaches should be seen as partners, given that society’s ability to cope with the impacts of climate change decreases as the severity of climate change increases. At moderate rates and levels of climate change, adaptation can be effective, but at severe rates, adapting to disturbances caused by climate change may not be possible, the report says.

Flexible and Adjustable
The new reports stress that national climate change research, efforts to limit emissions, and adaptation strategies should be designed to be flexible and responsive to new information and conditions in the coming decades. Because knowledge about future climate change and possible impacts will evolve, policies and programs should continually monitor and adjust to progress and consequences of actions.America’s Climate Choices also includes two additional reports that will be released later this year: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change will examine how to best provide decision makers information on climate change, and an overarching report will build on each of the previous reports and other work to offer a scientific framework for shaping the policy choices underlying the nation’s efforts to confront climate change.

(Reprinted from National Academies of Sciences press release).

Climate Change Cartoons

Posted on December 27, 2009 by admin

I found these on the Climate Progress site. Aussie readers should scroll to the bottom for an oldie but goodie about John Howard and George W.

John Howard was Australia's prime minister a few years ago and refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol. His successor (Kevin Rudd) started his first term in office by signing the treaty, but was recently seen to be essentially useless in Scandinavia.

What’s the Difference Between Weather and Climate?

Posted on December 25, 2009 by admin

The difference between weather and climate is time – weather happens daily and climate happens over longer periods.

Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere, and its short-term (minutes to weeks) variation. Popularly, weather is thought of as the combination of temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind. We talk about the weather in terms of “What will it be like today?”, “How hot is it right now?”, and “When will that storm hit our section of the country?”

Weather is basically the way the atmosphere is behaving, mainly with respect to its effects upon life and human activities. In most places, weather can change from minute-to-minute, hour-to-hour, day-to-day, and season-to-season. Climate, however, is the average of weather over time and space. An easy way to remember the difference is that climate is what you expect, like a very hot summer, and weather is what you get, like a hot day with pop-up thunderstorms.

Climate is defined as statistical weather information that describes the variation of weather at a given place for a specified interval. In popular usage, it represents the synthesis of weather; more formally it is the weather of a locality averaged over some period (usually 30 years) plus statistics of weather extremes. It is climate at your place on the globe that controls the weather where you live. Climate is the average weather pattern in a place over many years. So, the climate of Antarctica is quite different than the climate of a tropical island.

So in other words, the difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is the condition of the atmosphere over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere “behaves” over relatively long periods of time. In other words, climate is what you expect for a given area, and weather is what you get.

In short, climate is the description of the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area.

Some scientists define climate as the average weather for a particular region and time period, usually taken over 30-years. It’s really an average pattern of weather for a particular region.

When scientists talk about climate, they’re looking at averages of precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind velocity, phenomena such as fog, frost, and hail storms, and other measures of the weather that occur over a long period in a particular place.

For example, after looking at rain gauge data, lake and reservoir levels, and satellite data, scientists can tell if during a summer, an area was drier than average. If it continues to be drier than normal over the course of many summers, than it would likely indicate a change in the climate.

When we talk about climate change, we talk about changes in long-term averages of daily weather.

Today, children always hear stories from their parents and grandparents about how snow was always piled up to their waists as they trudged off to school. Children today in most areas of the country haven’t experienced those kinds of dreadful snow-packed winters, except for the Northeastern U.S. in January 2005. The change in recent winter snows indicate that the climate has changed since their parents were young.

If summers seem hotter lately, then the recent climate may have changed. In various parts of the world, some people have even noticed that springtime comes earlier now than it did 30 years ago. An earlier springtime is indicative of a possible change in the climate.

IPCC illustration of effects on extreme temperature when (a) the mean increases, leading to more record hot weather, (b) the variance increases, and (c) when both the mean and variance increase, leading to much more record hot weather.

Expected effects of climate change

It is likely that climate change will increase mean temperature in many areas (IPCC). It is also likely that many areas will esperience more climate variability.

The likelihood of more extreme events (particularly drought and heat stress) arises from the distributional impacts of an increase in mean temperature as well as the possible increase in temperature variation (IPCC 2001a). The effect of global warming on the incidence of extreme heat is illustrated in the figure.

For a normally distributed variable such as temperature, a small increase in its long-term mean, variance or both can produce substantial changes in the probability of occurrence of extreme heat.

For other variables that may not necessarily be well-approximated by normal distributions, like frost or precipitation, the situation is even more complex, especially for dry climates.

For precipitation, changes in the mean total precipitation can be accompanied by other changes like the frequency of precipitation or the shape of the distribution including its variability and therefore the probability of occurrence of precipitation extremes.

Women in Poor Countries Bear Brunt of Climate Change Effects

Posted on November 18, 2009 by admin

How do population dynamics affect greenhouse gases and climate change?

Will urbanisation and an aging population help or hinder efforts to adapt to a warming world?

And could better reproductive health care and improved relations between women and men make a difference in the fight against climate change?

These questions and more are addressed in the United Nations Population Fund’s State of World Population 2009.

Poor women in poor countries most at-risk from climate change-related weather events

Women bear the disproportionate burden of climate change, but have so far been largely overlooked in the debate about how to address problems of rising seas, droughts, melting glaciers and extreme weather, the report concludes.

Poor women in poor countries are among the hardest hit by climate change, even though they contributed the least to it.

-UNFPA Executive Director Thoraya Ahmed Obaid.

The poor are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and the majority of the 1.5 billion people living on $1 a day or less are women. The poor are more likely to depend on agriculture for a living and therefore risk going hungry or losing their livelihoods when droughts strike, rains become unpredictable and hurricanes move with unprecedented force. The poor tend to live in marginal areas, vulnerable to floods, rising seas and storms.

The report draws attention to populations in low-lying coastal areas that are vulnerable to climate change and calls on governments to plan ahead to strengthen risk reduction, preparedness and management of disasters and address the potential displacement of people.

2009 State of the World Population Report

Research cited in the report shows that women are more likely than men to die in natural disasters—including those related to extreme weather—with this gap most pronounced where incomes are low and status differences between men and women are high.

The international community’s fight against climate change is more likely to be successful if policies, programmes and treaties take into account the needs, rights and potential of women.

“With the possibility of a climate catastrophe on the horizon, we cannot afford to relegate the world’s 3.4 billion women and girls to the role of victim,” Ms. Obaid says. “Wouldn’t it make more sense to have 3.4 billion agents for change?”

Investments that empower women and girls—particularly education and health—bolster economic development and reduce poverty and have a beneficial impact on climate.

Girls with more education, for example, tend to have smaller and healthier families as adults. Women with access to reproductive health services, including family planning, have lower fertility rates that contribute to slower growth in greenhouse-gas emissions in the long run.

Video
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More on Ocean Acidification

Posted on October 6, 2009 by admin

More on ocean acidification and climate change. I actually think that this issue will shortly overtake global warming as the focus of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Why do I say that?

Because it’s happening rapidly, has definite and measurable ecological and economic effects, and is harder for the climate change deniers to disprove (although I’m sure that they’ll try and think of something!).

Watch this space – Remember you heard it here first!!!

Polar bears increasingly endangered by the polar impacts of climate change

Polar bears increasingly endangered by the Arctic impacts of climate change

Arctic seas turn to acid putting vital food chain at risk

Carbon-dioxide emissions are turning the waters of the Arctic Ocean into acid at an unprecedented rate, scientists have discovered. Research carried out in the archipelago of Svalbard has shown in many regions around the north pole seawater is likely to reach corrosive levels within 10 years. The water will then start to dissolve the shells of mussels and other shellfish and cause major disruption to the food chain. By the end of the century, the entire Arctic Ocean will be corrosively acidic.

Oceans May Soon Be More Corrosive Than When The Dinosaurs Died

Increased carbon dioxide emissions are rapidly acidifying the world’s oceans and, if unabated, could cause a mass extinction of marine life similar to one that occurred when the dinosaurs disappeared. By comparing computer model predictions of changes in ocean chemistry with evidence from the fossil record, researchers have found a glimpse of the possible future for ocean life if society does not drastically curb carbon dioxide emissions.

Ocean Becoming More Acidic, Potentially Threatening Marine Life

A dramatic increase in carbon dioxide levels is making the world’s ocean more acidic, which may adversely affect the survival of marine life and organisms that depend on them, such as humans.

Corals And Climate Change

A modest new lab at the Rosenstiel School is the first of its kind to tackle the global problem of climate change impacts on corals. Fully operational this month, this new lab has begun to study how corals respond to the combined stress of greenhouse warming and ocean acidification. The lab is the first to maintain corals under precisely controlled temperature and carbon dioxide conditions while exposing them to natural light conditions.

Sea Level Rise to Be Higher & Faster Than Predicted by IPCC

Posted on August 5, 2009 by admin

Recent research suggests that global warming-related sea level rise will be faster and greater than previously forecast. The poles are experiencing disproportionate warming and are undergoing accelerated melting. The amount of this melt will largely determine the degree of sea-level rise over coming centuries.

Polar Ice Is Melting Faster Than Predicted

Melting is proceeding at an unprecedented pace that already exceeds the worst-case scenario in the 2007 IPCC report, and there is a growing scientific consensus that the IPCC wildly underestimated the rapidity and extent of glacial melting.

Over the coming centuries anthropogenic warming will be the main driver of sea-level rise, even if emissions decreased and atmospheric levels of CO2 stabilised at 450ppm. If we burn all remaining fossil fuel stores then sea level will be over 10 metres higher than it is today.

While the single biggest contributor to sea-level rise during the twentieth century was the melting of non-polar glaciers (such as those in the Himalayas and Andes), polar ice is predicted to rapidly overtake it. Thermal expansion of the oceans will also play a role but will pale into insignificance compared to the amount of water currently locked up in Greenland and Antarctica (which will raise sea level by 70 metres if it all melts).

Rising Sea Levels Are Due To Global Warming-Induced Climate Change

There are three main mechanisms contributing to the accelerating loss of polar ice.

Glacial lubrication by meltwater (where melting freshwater infiltrates through cracks in the glacier, reaching the bedrock and acting as a lubricant that accelerates glacial flow) is one mechanism. Initially thought to be the most important mechanism, it is probably not the primary factor that will lead to accelerated sea level rise.

A second mechanism is the break-up of floating ice shelves (like the Antarctic’s Larsen B shelf). While not increasing sea level directly (because they are already floating), they appear to act as a “cork” for the glacier behind them. Once they disappear, glacial flow accelerates significantly – This was observed at Larsen B where immediate glacial acceleration (of eight times normal speed) followed its demise.

The third (and probably most important) mechanism of ice loss has only just been discovered – the melting of Antarctic ice by the upwelling of warmer water from several hundred metres below the surface of the sea. This is occurring in increasingly greater amounts due to global warming. A warming pole has changed the pattern of wind flow around Antarctica, in turn changing sea currents and directing warm water towards vulnerable ice shelves.

This process is already happening to some ice shelves (notably the ice shelf holding back the massive Pine Island glacier) and could cause a sea-level rise of 3.3 metres over the next few hundred years.

Antarctica's Ice Is Disappearing

Summary: Ice at the poles is melting much faster than predicted, and the majority of sea level experts are expecting at least a metre of sea-level rise by 2100.

Paul Roth is a health professional concerned about human-caused global warming and climate change. He is the founder of Climate Change Health, a blog dedicated to documenting climate change and its effects on human health.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Paul_Andrew_Roth
http://EzineArticles.com/?Sea-Level-Rise-to-Be-Higher-and-Faster-Than-Predicted-by-IPCC&id=2663108

State of the World 2009 Released

Posted on July 31, 2009 by admin

The Worldwatch Institute has released their latest annual report on the health of the environment. From the highlights page:

Emissions and Warming

According to the latest IPCC report, warming by 2100 is projected to be in the range of 1.1-6.4 degrees Celsius above the average in the 1980-99 period. Unabated, current increasing trends in emissions can be expected to raise Earth’s temperature by 4-6 degrees Celsius above today’s levels, if not more, by the end of this century. (pp. 13-14)
A recent assessment indicates that a significant number of “tipping points”-thresholds beyond which it would become difficult-to-impossible to reverse changes in the climate system-could be approached if the planet warms more than 3 degree Celsius over the preindustrial level. However, a number of tipping points-including loss of the Greenland ice sheet-could be approached at warming levels over 1.5-2 degrees Celsius. (p. 17)
The findings of the latest IPCC assessment and more-recent studies strongly reinforce the conclusion that “safe” levels of warming lie at 2 degrees Celsius or below. (p. 19)
Once greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, global mean temperature will continue to rise due to momentum in the climate system for several decades, but it will very likely also begin to stabilize after several decades. (p. 23)
Half of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitted today is expected to remain in the atmosphere a century from now, and much will remain even 10,000 years in the future. (pp. 23-24)
Recent research has demonstrated that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fast enough so that their atmospheric concentrations can be limited to around 400 parts per millon of CO₂-equivalent, or to lower in the longer term. (p. 25)

There is plenty more on the highlights page. Worth a quick look.

New Worldwatch Report

MIT predicts warming of 5.2 degress by 2100

Posted on July 13, 2009 by admin

The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth’s climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago – and could be even worse than that.

The study uses the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved 400 runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But the MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well – such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.

Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT’s Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important “to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science,” he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model, unlike any other, looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. “In that sense, our work is unique,” he says.

The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. This can be compared to a median projected increase in the 2003 study of just 2.4 degrees.

Climate Change HEALTH

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